FFNN (Feed-Forward Neural Nets) are one of the most widely used neural nets. In this
thesis the FFNN architecture is examined and compared with statistical time series models
for a variety of time series prediction problems. FFNN do not assume any probability
models, while statistical models are based on the probability model. Therefore, if
the goal of the modelling is rigorous quantification of uncertainty, statistical models
are more suitable. However if the goal is merely prediction, we demonstrate that
neural nets have a lot to offer. Widely different parameter settings in the neural
net approach often lead to models which make virtually the same predictions. Neural net
offer a more flexible approach to model building which is especially helpful in nonlinear
and nonGaussian situations. In this thesis, the performance by NN models and statistical
models for prediction is examined by using visualization techniques and statistical tests.
Keywords:
Feed-Forward Neural Nets,
Linear and nonlinear time series models,
Forecasting,
Nonlinear time series,
Visualization